Is there a “golden cohort” effect in mobile games? A first look
The “golden cohort” effect has been widely recognized in the world of software development, particularly for PC applications. The idea is simple: when a new product, like a messaging app, launches, the first wave of users tends to be the most engaged and relevant audience. As time goes on, less targeted users start trying the product, leading to a gradual drop in key metrics.
But what about mobile games? Most hypercasual and midcore games launch without any pre-release buzz, yet they also experience a post-launch drop in performance.
- You launch a new game, and after a few weeks, key metrics start declining—even though nothing has changed.
- Or, two months after release, you roll out a new version that should, in theory, absolutely perform better than the original. Yet, the expected uplift in metrics doesn’t happen.
At this point, teams often worry that something has gone wrong. But could it simply be the golden cohort effect at play?
To answer this question, we analyzed internal data, leveraging our experience from over 100 game releases and more than 9 billion installs.
Methodology
To test the hypothesis, we examined all Azur Games releases across iOS and Android, from hypercasual titles (the majority) to casual and midcore games. We filtered projects based on several key criteria:
- Only games with 5,000+ installs per week were included.
- The dataset focused exclusively on projects with existing monetization models.
- We removed projects with extreme metrics (falling outside the 5%-95% percentile range) to focus on typical trends. This eliminated anomalies caused by sudden spikes in monetization, a few high-spending players, or breakout hits.
What the data shows at first glance
The golden cohort effect definitely exists. The real question is how much it impacts mobile games—and whether anything can be done about it.
1. Conversion rates drop over time.
- In the first week: -5%
- After a month: -8%
- After two months: -11.5%
The main reason for this decline is that ad networks initially bring in the most motivated users. Meanwhile, ad creatives gradually “burn out,” further contributing to the drop. A year later, similar trends can be observed in most cases.
2. User acquisition costs increase within the first month.
- CPI increases by ~10% per month.
This is a direct consequence of the first point: as CR and CTR decline, CPI naturally rises.
3. R1 declines slightly over time.
On average, R1 decreases by a few percentage points over time. However, some projects show extreme fluctuations, with retention either increasing or dropping by as much as 20%. Since we analyzed a large portfolio of games, these fluctuations balance out, making the overall decline appear relatively small.
For a small studio, though, these figures can be far more volatile. With fewer games to average out the effect, the drop in retention could be several times more pronounced.
We also examined several projects with declining R1 where there were no clear external factors—no major gameplay changes, no monetization adjustments. The only explanation? The golden cohort effect.
4. The golden cohort effect impacts all genres equally.
We hypothesized that different game genres might experience varying degrees of the effect. However, clustering analysis showed no significant differences between genres, mechanics, or styles. Conclusion: The golden cohort effect is universal—it impacts all mobile games.
A visualization of the data further supports this, showing no distinct genre-based patterns.
Preliminary conclusions
The golden cohort effect in mobile games is real—the most targeted and engaged users join in the early days after launch. They are cheaper to acquire, have higher retention, and are more likely to make purchases.
A drop in key metrics in the weeks following release is often just a natural consequence of this effect. It doesn’t necessarily mean the game has issues or that a recent update failed to resonate with players.
Given how player expectations have risen in recent years, this effect reinforces the importance of launching with a well-polished product rather than rushing out a rough prototype.
For hypercasual games, the impact of the golden cohort on monetization is less significant, since revenue mostly comes from ads. If a user installs the game, they will see ads regardless of whether they are the ideal player.
However, for games reliant on in-app purchases, retaining the golden cohort is critical. These early players are the most likely to convert into paying users, but if they don’t get hooked early, they may leave before making a purchase.
Can anything be done about it?
The good news is that the golden cohort effect creates a valuable early-stage window where marketing is more cost-effective and return on investment is easier to achieve.
This is because ad network algorithms prioritize engaged users at launch, keeping acquisition costs lower. If a game is performing well, this is the best time to scale aggressively.
However, this golden window is short-lived, typically lasting between one week and 1.5 months. After that, metrics start to decline, audience engagement drops, and ad networks become more competitive, driving up CPI and display costs.
For Azur Games, this is less of a concern since we take a long-term approach to game development. Our key titles remain in operation for 5+ years, meaning that the impact of the golden cohort becomes minimal over time.
That said, for casual and midcore games that rely on in-app purchases, the effect is more pronounced. This makes it crucial to ensure a game is as polished as possible even before soft launch—at least to the extent that it feels like a finished product.
In the past, mobile developers followed a different approach: Release a prototype as quickly as possible > Test if the audience likes it > If it shows potential, refine it > If it flops, move on to the next idea.
But times have changed. Player expectations are higher than ever, and competition is fierce. Polishing and iterating on already profitable projects has become more cost-effective than launching brand-new games—even in hypercasual.
It’s possible that the golden cohort effect could be leveraged as part of a long-term marketing strategy, but that’s something for future research.